This is the match-up in the final four that didn’t surprise a lot of people. Yeah, many people thought Kentucky would be here, but they weren’t shocked that West Virginia eliminated them in the regional final. Let’s take a look at both teams road to this point:

West Virginia:
1st Round:WVU 77 Morgan St. 50
2nd Round: WVU 68 Missouri 59
Sweet Sixteen: WVU 69 Washington 56
Elite Eight: WVU 73 Kentucky 66

Duke:
1st Round: Duke 73 Ark-Pine Bluff 44
2nd Round: Duke 68 California 53
Sweet Sixteen: Duke 70 Purdue 57
Elite Eight: Duke 78 Baylor 71

Here’s a look at the stats for this match-up: The Four Factors to Winning

I’m not sure it can get much more even statistically. There are virtually no advantages here. One stat that isn’t shown here is points per game. Duke is slightly better at 77.4 per game to West Virginia’s 72.8. But some could argue that Duke played in a weaker conference causing their average to be higher. Regardless, if you are looking for an eye-popping statistical advantage in this game, you won’t find it.

Looking at other factors like defensive schemes, I see two teams that play solid defense. Duke will play an aggressive man-to-man defense while West Virginia will play a mix of man and zone defenses. I think one of the keys will be turnovers. Neither team turns the ball over a lot, but trends tend to change under the bright lights at the final four. If one team slips in this area it could be the difference between hanging around for Monday night’s championship game and watching it on TV.

Final Prediction:

With this game so evenly matched, it comes down to the intangibles. Who wants it more? This game will also decide my household bracket challenge. My wife currently holds a slim lead on me and she has Duke in the championship game. I have West Virginia in the championship game. I’ll be routing for West Virginia from that aspect, but I’m a long time Duke fan and I have a difficult time routing against Duke and Coach K. I think West Virginia will have a difficult time with Duke’s pressure defense in the absence point guard Darryl Bryant. The Mountaineers looked very shaky at times when Kentucky turned up the defensive pressure. I’m picking Duke to beat West Virginia in an absolute battle between two great teams.

We have finally arrived at the final four. Every college hoops fan loves the final four. Let’s not forget the road to the final four for Michigan State and Butler.

Butler:
1st Round- Butler 77 UTEP 59
2nd Round- Butler 54 Murray St. 52
Sweet Sixteen- Butler 63 Syracuse 59
Elite Eight- Butler 63 Kansas State 56

Michigan State:
1st Round- Michigan State 70 New Mexico State 67
2nd Round- Michigan State 85 Maryland 83
Sweet Sixteen- Michigan State 59 Northern Iowa 52
Elite Eight- Michigan State 70 Tennessee 69

Now lets take a look at the stats in this edition of “The Four Factors to Winning“:

The two stats that jump out to me are offensive rebounding and free throws. The Spartans hold a huge advantage in offensive rebounding in this match-up. The Spartans lead the nation in total rebounding differential at about +9 rebounds per game. The Bulldogs get to the free throw line at a higher rate than their opponents which does two things. It allows them to score points from the free throw line and also gets their opponents in foul trouble.

Taking a look outside the stats I see two teams that play a similar style. Both play hard nosed defense and are opportunistic on offense. What I mean by opportunistic is that both of them can play in the half court but they will look to run when a opportunity presents itself. Michigan State holds the advantage inside but can they find a way to exploit it? Syracuse and Kansas State couldn’t.

I see the key match-up of this game at the forward spot. Butler’s Gordon Hayward who will most likely be matched up against Michigan State’s Raymar Morgan. Hayward has been the “x-factor” for Butler in the tournament and nobody has been able to match-up with him. Morgan has the size and agility to match-up with Hayward, but will he be up to the challenge?

Final Prediction:

This will be a very close, competitive game. The home crowd for Butler will energize the Bulldogs as Butler’s campus is only 7 miles from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. I try to stick to one rule in the tournament when picking Michigan State games. Unless their is a HUGE differential in talent between the two teams, I don’t pick against Tom Izzo in the tournament. I think Izzo and his Spartans find a way to win another close one and get back to the Championship game Monday night for a second consecutive year.

All this talk about the Mid-West region being the so called “toughest” region…well there may be some truth there, but take a look at the West region. All 4 teams still alive in this region were all ranked in the top 25 prior to the NCAA Tournament. This is the only region where this is the case.

Let’s take a look inside the numbers for Kansas State vs. Xavier:

The two things that stick out to me here is that K-State holds sizable advantage in their ability to get to the free throw line and also in crashing the offensive boards. Xavier does turn the ball over less and shoots a slightly better percentage from the field, but these categories are virtually even.

These two teams played each other back in December with K-State winning 71-56. Here is another look at the 4 factors to winning related to this game back in December. (Much Different than the entire season chart above)

The good news for Xavier is that the NCAA tournament is different than the regular season. They don’t have to be a better team than K-State…only a better team for one night. I like Xavier’s team, but I think K-State might be too much for them again.

Remember when everyone said the Pac 10 was a joke of a conference and they should only be a one bid conference for the NCAA Tournament? (I’m guilty here) Well, the Pac 10 did only get two teams in the dance, but (11 seed) Washington “upset” (6 seed) Marquette and (3 seed) New Mexico on their way to the sweet sixteen. Also, Cal beat a good Louisville team in a 8 vs. 9 seed match-up. Louisville was picked by most to not only beat Cal, but give #1 seed Duke a scare if not beat them.

Enough of that, lets take a look inside the numbers for West Virginia vs Washington:

Just looking at the numbers, this should be a very close, competitive game. The only real advantage that sticks out is in favor of West Virginia on the offensive glass. Both teams limit their turnovers and shoot a high percentage from the field. Washington holds a slight advantage in terms of getting to the free throw line more frequently.

To me this game comes down to West Virginia’s big three of Da’Sean Butler, Kevin Jones and Devin Ebanks vs. Washington’s duo of Quincy Pondexter and Isaiah Thomas. Washington has been impressive to this point, but I think they’ll have problems tonight containing the big three of West Virginia. I see Bob Huggins and the Mountaineers moving on to the elite eight…and one step closer to the Final Four.

The sweet sixteen tips off with Butler vs. Syracuse. The spread on this game has the Orange at 6 point favorites. Don’t sleep on Butler as the underdog in this one; even though they are a 5 seed, they are also ranked #11 in the country. The 5 seed is only because of the conference they play in, but make no mistake they have the talent to play with the big boys. The Bulldogs also carry the nation’s longest active winning streak, which currently sits at 22 games.

Take a look at this game, Inside The Numbers:

The thing that jumps out to me is that both teams take care of the ball and really limit their turnovers. If that holds true in this match-up we should be in for a close, competitive game. The biggest differential is in free throw rate. Butler gets to the line more than Syracuse. We’ll see if that holds water in this game as Butler will see a Syracuse 2-3 zone unlike anything they faced before.

Taking a step back when looking at this match-up I see a tremendous perimeter shooting team in Butler, facing a team in Syracuse that plays zone defense. Conventional wisdom would tell you that the perimeter shooting team holds the advantage. The problem with that thought process is it doesn’t give the Syracuse 2-3 zone enough credit. The Orange can give a lot of different looks and pressure from the base 2-3 zone look. Butler will make some threes in this game, but in my opinion they’ll need to make 11 or 12 threes to win this game. Should be a fun one to watch.

Not every NCAA tournament has a Cinderella and if you ask the Cornell Big Red, this year’s tournament doesn’t. Don’t get me wrong, they realize they are a #12 seed (lowest remaining seed in the field) and had to beat 2 good teams (Temple and Purdue) just to advance to this point. Cornell realizes how special this is, but make no mistake about it; Cornell is here to win.

I was first exposed to this year’s Cornell team when they nearly upset #1 and then undefeated Kansas at Allen Field House. I remember the hearing after the game that Kansas All-American guard told Cornell forward Ryan Wittman that he was a great player during the game right out on the court. Also, Kansas coach Bill Self asked Cornell coach Steve Donahue during their post game hand shake if Donahue thought his team played well. Donahue responded with a simple “Yes”. Self replied with ”Good, because I thought we played well, too”. That’s when I figured this Cornell team might be for real.

Here are some stats for you:

Notice both teams take pretty good care of the ball and shoot a good percentage. Cornell has an advantage in eFG (effective field goal percentage) but they will be tested against this long and athletic Kentucky team. Kentucky gets to the free throw line more often which is a result of the John Calipari dribble drive offensive. Take away the team names in this graphic and it looks to be a pretty competitive game. Insert Cornell and Kentucky back into the graphic and the general public will say Cornell doesn’t stand a chance.

Cornell is a senior led experienced basketball team. Kentucky is led by 3 talented freshmen (Wall, Cousins and Bledsoe). Kentucky coach John Calipari has been quoted saying “In March, I’ll take talent over experience”. That theory will be put to the test Thursday night.

For those of you, who missed out on watching the Michigan State vs. Maryland game, don’t worry; it’s bound to be on ESPN Classic. If you would have told me before the game that the Spartan’s floor leader, Kalin Lucas was going to miss the second half due to an injury, I would have said Terps win running away. I would have been wrong. Again, people (myself included) underestimated Tom Izzo’s ability to get the very most out of his team in March. The Spartans were without starter Chris Allen (he only played 4 minutes) and starter Kalin Lucas, who went down with an injury to his lower leg with about 2 minutes to play in the first half. Take any other team in the country minus two of their starters against Maryland in the NCAA tournament. Who wins? I’m serious now, even take Kentucky for example. Take John Wall and any other starter out of the Cat’s lineup. Would you pick them to beat Greivis Vasquez and Maryland? I sure wouldn’t. Let that sink in for a second so you can truly appreciate what the Spartans accomplished on a Sunday afternoon in Spokane.

I’m not going to try to recap this instant classic as words really can’t do it justice. So I encourage you to Google it and watch the last 3 minutes or so. Really great stuff. I did say before the game that MSU’s turnovers and their ability to crash the offensive glass would be two stats to keep an eye on. Well, the Spartans turned the ball over 18 times which allowed Maryland to comeback from a 16 point second half deficit. Michigan State’s ability to dominate the paint and hit the offensive boards hurt Maryland for much of the game. However, in the end it really just came down to one shot. Korie Lucious, that shot will be remembered by Spartan fans (and Maryland fans) for a long time to come.

Up next for Michigan State is Northern Iowa out of the Missouri Valley Conference and fresh of the stunning upset of the #1 overall seed Kansas Jayhawks. I’ll be back later in the week with a preview of this game as well as other sweet sixteen match-ups.

Well my bracket is completely busted after day 3 of the tournament. I’ve lost 2 final four teams (Kansas and Villanova) and my champion (Kansas). My wife, whose knowledge of college basketball is comparable to my knowledge of wearing make-up (and no I don’t wear make-up!); hit 26 of 32 in the first round compared to my 21. She has Maryland winning it all, so today’s Michigan State game is pivotal in our house-hold bracket challenge. I have the Spartans winning today in my bracket but what the heck do I know.

I’m a numbers guy so here are some numbers on today’s match-up.

As you can see these teams are evenly matched. I’d like to point out two things on this chart. First, Maryland holds a decent edge in turnovers. If that holds true then MSU could be in trouble. Second, MSU holds a fairly large advantage in offensive rebounding. In my opinion if the Spartans can get after the offensive boards like they have all season, then they will have a great chance at winning.

Two great coaches in this one. Michigan State’s Tom Izzo and Maryland’s Gary Williams. Here are some more stats for you:

Stats from Statsheet.com

Notice the outstanding tournament records of both coaches. The only real edge is probably in final fours. Izzo has 5 final fours, with one of those coming last year. Several players returned from that team, but they are missing some key pieces (Suton, Walton, Grey). I think this one comes down to Michigan State’s ability to contain Greivis Vasquez. He is the reining ACC player of the year and does it all for Maryland. If MSU can slow down his penetration and not allow him too many open looks from the perimeter, Maryland could struggle. Problem is most teams can’t do those things to Vasquez.

Michigan State will need another big game from Kalin Lucas and key contributions from Draymond Green, Raymar Morgan and Durrell Summers in order to advance to the sweet sixteen for the 3rd straight year.

Can’t wait for this one, should be a great game to watch. Let’s hope my wife’s bracket gets busted up after this one and allow me to save face in our house-hold tournament challenge!

I stumbled across a sweet stat resource at StatSheet.com. I wanted to show an example of what this site can do for you…for FREE! If you checkout my bracket (link is on the right side of my blog) you’ll notice I have UTEP upsetting Butler in the first round. I had a chance to watch UTEP early in the season against Oklahoma. I was really impressed by this team made up of several transfers. Most notable Louisville transfer Derrick Caracter. Upsets happen so do be afraid to pick em….at least that’s my strategy!

The most important stat I found was the Butler opponents points per game (60) vs. UTEP’s points per game (75.8) Nearly a 16 point differential here. So something’s gotta give and for the sake of my bracket…I hope UTEP wins this battle.

The Big Ten will send 5 teams to the tournament this year. Some experts say that it should have been 6 teams, with Illinois being the sixth. Bottom line is Illinois didn’t do enough to make the tournament committee’s decision an easy one. Every year their will be a couple teams that feel like they got “screwed”. But in my opinion, that’s what makes the tournament so special. I’m not in favor of the expansion to 96 teams. I think it will hurt the NCAA tournament. Some people that think more players should experience the NCAA tournament and expanding the field to 96 teams will help with that effort. I say to those people, why do you think the NCAA tournament experience is so special for players and coaches? Because not everyone gets to go! If you let more teams in, then in my opinion you run the risk of making it less of an achievement to appear in the tournament. Sorry about the rant…back to the Big Ten’s tournament teams.

The five teams representing the Big Ten are as follows:

Ohio State: 2 seed, Mid-West region
Purdue: 4 seed, South region
Wisconsin: 4 seed, East region
Michigan State: 5 seed, Mid-West region
Minnesota: 11 seed, West region

Ohio State (2) vs. UC Santa Barbara (15): I don’t need to spend much time on this match-up or miss-match. This is the only Big Ten team that won’t be in for a dog fight in the first round. Evan Turner and company will cruise into the second round. I have the Buckeyes being eliminated in the sweet sixteen, but they certainly have final four type talent. Unfortunately, they find themselves in a very difficult bracket.

Purdue (4) vs. Siena (13): There has been a lot of talk about Purdue and how they’ve struggled without Robbie Hummel. The Boilers find themselves matched up against a tournament tested Siena team. I think Purdue continues to struggle and Siena upsets (if you can call it that) the Boilers. I actually have this Siena team in my sweet sixteen.

Wisconsin (4) vs. Wofford (13): The Badgers always find a way to survive and advance in the tournament. They win ugly…which is a trademark of a Bo Ryan team. Wofford is making their first ever tournament appearance and it looks to be a short one. I see the Badgers by double digits in this one. I have the Badgers getting upset by Cornell in the second round, but if they prove me wrong I think they could give Kentucky fits in the sweet sixteen. We’ll see if they prove me wrong.

Michigan State (5) vs. New Mexico State (12): The dreaded 5-12 match-up. This match-up always seems to produce upsets every year. Good thing for the Spartans, they are 5-0 as a 5 seed. This trend will continue as they should win by double digits. I have the Spartans beating Maryland in the second round, but it should be a real battle. I toyed with the idea of having MSU taking down Kansas in the sweet sixteen. I think the Spartans actually match-up really good with Kansas. Lucas should hold his own with Collins and Green with Aldrich. But since you never know which MSU team will show up this year I had to go with the Jayhawks as they have been consistent all year.

Minnesota (11) vs. Xavier (6): The only Big Ten team that will not be favored in the first round. I like Tubby Smith’s ability to get his team ready in a tournament situation. They will face a tough Xavier team but I like the Gophers to advance to the second round. I have Minnesota losing in the second round to Pitt.

So I have 4 out of the 5 Big Ten teams picked to win in the first round, but only 2 advancing past the first weekend into the sweet sixteen (MSU and Ohio State). I don’t have either MSU or Ohio State advancing to the elite eight, but what the heck do I know? Honestly, even though I didn’t pick my bracket this way, Ohio State, MSU and Wisconsin all have legit shots at getting to the elite eight and maybe further. Should be a decent showing by the Big Ten.