We have finally arrived at the final four. Every college hoops fan loves the final four. Let’s not forget the road to the final four for Michigan State and Butler.

Butler:
1st Round- Butler 77 UTEP 59
2nd Round- Butler 54 Murray St. 52
Sweet Sixteen- Butler 63 Syracuse 59
Elite Eight- Butler 63 Kansas State 56

Michigan State:
1st Round- Michigan State 70 New Mexico State 67
2nd Round- Michigan State 85 Maryland 83
Sweet Sixteen- Michigan State 59 Northern Iowa 52
Elite Eight- Michigan State 70 Tennessee 69

Now lets take a look at the stats in this edition of “The Four Factors to Winning“:

The two stats that jump out to me are offensive rebounding and free throws. The Spartans hold a huge advantage in offensive rebounding in this match-up. The Spartans lead the nation in total rebounding differential at about +9 rebounds per game. The Bulldogs get to the free throw line at a higher rate than their opponents which does two things. It allows them to score points from the free throw line and also gets their opponents in foul trouble.

Taking a look outside the stats I see two teams that play a similar style. Both play hard nosed defense and are opportunistic on offense. What I mean by opportunistic is that both of them can play in the half court but they will look to run when a opportunity presents itself. Michigan State holds the advantage inside but can they find a way to exploit it? Syracuse and Kansas State couldn’t.

I see the key match-up of this game at the forward spot. Butler’s Gordon Hayward who will most likely be matched up against Michigan State’s Raymar Morgan. Hayward has been the “x-factor” for Butler in the tournament and nobody has been able to match-up with him. Morgan has the size and agility to match-up with Hayward, but will he be up to the challenge?

Final Prediction:

This will be a very close, competitive game. The home crowd for Butler will energize the Bulldogs as Butler’s campus is only 7 miles from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. I try to stick to one rule in the tournament when picking Michigan State games. Unless their is a HUGE differential in talent between the two teams, I don’t pick against Tom Izzo in the tournament. I think Izzo and his Spartans find a way to win another close one and get back to the Championship game Monday night for a second consecutive year.

For those of you, who missed out on watching the Michigan State vs. Maryland game, don’t worry; it’s bound to be on ESPN Classic. If you would have told me before the game that the Spartan’s floor leader, Kalin Lucas was going to miss the second half due to an injury, I would have said Terps win running away. I would have been wrong. Again, people (myself included) underestimated Tom Izzo’s ability to get the very most out of his team in March. The Spartans were without starter Chris Allen (he only played 4 minutes) and starter Kalin Lucas, who went down with an injury to his lower leg with about 2 minutes to play in the first half. Take any other team in the country minus two of their starters against Maryland in the NCAA tournament. Who wins? I’m serious now, even take Kentucky for example. Take John Wall and any other starter out of the Cat’s lineup. Would you pick them to beat Greivis Vasquez and Maryland? I sure wouldn’t. Let that sink in for a second so you can truly appreciate what the Spartans accomplished on a Sunday afternoon in Spokane.

I’m not going to try to recap this instant classic as words really can’t do it justice. So I encourage you to Google it and watch the last 3 minutes or so. Really great stuff. I did say before the game that MSU’s turnovers and their ability to crash the offensive glass would be two stats to keep an eye on. Well, the Spartans turned the ball over 18 times which allowed Maryland to comeback from a 16 point second half deficit. Michigan State’s ability to dominate the paint and hit the offensive boards hurt Maryland for much of the game. However, in the end it really just came down to one shot. Korie Lucious, that shot will be remembered by Spartan fans (and Maryland fans) for a long time to come.

Up next for Michigan State is Northern Iowa out of the Missouri Valley Conference and fresh of the stunning upset of the #1 overall seed Kansas Jayhawks. I’ll be back later in the week with a preview of this game as well as other sweet sixteen match-ups.

Well my bracket is completely busted after day 3 of the tournament. I’ve lost 2 final four teams (Kansas and Villanova) and my champion (Kansas). My wife, whose knowledge of college basketball is comparable to my knowledge of wearing make-up (and no I don’t wear make-up!); hit 26 of 32 in the first round compared to my 21. She has Maryland winning it all, so today’s Michigan State game is pivotal in our house-hold bracket challenge. I have the Spartans winning today in my bracket but what the heck do I know.

I’m a numbers guy so here are some numbers on today’s match-up.

As you can see these teams are evenly matched. I’d like to point out two things on this chart. First, Maryland holds a decent edge in turnovers. If that holds true then MSU could be in trouble. Second, MSU holds a fairly large advantage in offensive rebounding. In my opinion if the Spartans can get after the offensive boards like they have all season, then they will have a great chance at winning.

Two great coaches in this one. Michigan State’s Tom Izzo and Maryland’s Gary Williams. Here are some more stats for you:

Stats from Statsheet.com

Notice the outstanding tournament records of both coaches. The only real edge is probably in final fours. Izzo has 5 final fours, with one of those coming last year. Several players returned from that team, but they are missing some key pieces (Suton, Walton, Grey). I think this one comes down to Michigan State’s ability to contain Greivis Vasquez. He is the reining ACC player of the year and does it all for Maryland. If MSU can slow down his penetration and not allow him too many open looks from the perimeter, Maryland could struggle. Problem is most teams can’t do those things to Vasquez.

Michigan State will need another big game from Kalin Lucas and key contributions from Draymond Green, Raymar Morgan and Durrell Summers in order to advance to the sweet sixteen for the 3rd straight year.

Can’t wait for this one, should be a great game to watch. Let’s hope my wife’s bracket gets busted up after this one and allow me to save face in our house-hold tournament challenge!

The Big Ten will send 5 teams to the tournament this year. Some experts say that it should have been 6 teams, with Illinois being the sixth. Bottom line is Illinois didn’t do enough to make the tournament committee’s decision an easy one. Every year their will be a couple teams that feel like they got “screwed”. But in my opinion, that’s what makes the tournament so special. I’m not in favor of the expansion to 96 teams. I think it will hurt the NCAA tournament. Some people that think more players should experience the NCAA tournament and expanding the field to 96 teams will help with that effort. I say to those people, why do you think the NCAA tournament experience is so special for players and coaches? Because not everyone gets to go! If you let more teams in, then in my opinion you run the risk of making it less of an achievement to appear in the tournament. Sorry about the rant…back to the Big Ten’s tournament teams.

The five teams representing the Big Ten are as follows:

Ohio State: 2 seed, Mid-West region
Purdue: 4 seed, South region
Wisconsin: 4 seed, East region
Michigan State: 5 seed, Mid-West region
Minnesota: 11 seed, West region

Ohio State (2) vs. UC Santa Barbara (15): I don’t need to spend much time on this match-up or miss-match. This is the only Big Ten team that won’t be in for a dog fight in the first round. Evan Turner and company will cruise into the second round. I have the Buckeyes being eliminated in the sweet sixteen, but they certainly have final four type talent. Unfortunately, they find themselves in a very difficult bracket.

Purdue (4) vs. Siena (13): There has been a lot of talk about Purdue and how they’ve struggled without Robbie Hummel. The Boilers find themselves matched up against a tournament tested Siena team. I think Purdue continues to struggle and Siena upsets (if you can call it that) the Boilers. I actually have this Siena team in my sweet sixteen.

Wisconsin (4) vs. Wofford (13): The Badgers always find a way to survive and advance in the tournament. They win ugly…which is a trademark of a Bo Ryan team. Wofford is making their first ever tournament appearance and it looks to be a short one. I see the Badgers by double digits in this one. I have the Badgers getting upset by Cornell in the second round, but if they prove me wrong I think they could give Kentucky fits in the sweet sixteen. We’ll see if they prove me wrong.

Michigan State (5) vs. New Mexico State (12): The dreaded 5-12 match-up. This match-up always seems to produce upsets every year. Good thing for the Spartans, they are 5-0 as a 5 seed. This trend will continue as they should win by double digits. I have the Spartans beating Maryland in the second round, but it should be a real battle. I toyed with the idea of having MSU taking down Kansas in the sweet sixteen. I think the Spartans actually match-up really good with Kansas. Lucas should hold his own with Collins and Green with Aldrich. But since you never know which MSU team will show up this year I had to go with the Jayhawks as they have been consistent all year.

Minnesota (11) vs. Xavier (6): The only Big Ten team that will not be favored in the first round. I like Tubby Smith’s ability to get his team ready in a tournament situation. They will face a tough Xavier team but I like the Gophers to advance to the second round. I have Minnesota losing in the second round to Pitt.

So I have 4 out of the 5 Big Ten teams picked to win in the first round, but only 2 advancing past the first weekend into the sweet sixteen (MSU and Ohio State). I don’t have either MSU or Ohio State advancing to the elite eight, but what the heck do I know? Honestly, even though I didn’t pick my bracket this way, Ohio State, MSU and Wisconsin all have legit shots at getting to the elite eight and maybe further. Should be a decent showing by the Big Ten.

Sorry I missed out on previewing the semi-finals. My buddies threw me a diaper party and I was gone most of the day. Anyway, on to the match-up most people (including myself) didn’t expect.

#1 seed Ohio State fresh off a double overtime win over #5 seeded Illinois looks to make their case for that forth number #1 seed that seems to still be up for grabs. Most so called experts believe Duke will capture that fourth 1 seed with a win today in the ACC tournament championship game. Nonetheless, Ohio State has a lot to play for today.

#6 seed Minnesota looks to win their 4th game in 4 days and punch their ticket to the NCAA tournament. As of right now they are on the bubble and in a group of 6 teams battling for 2 at large bids. We’ll see if Tubby Smith’s team has enough left in the tank to upset the Buckeyes today.

Minnesota has looked very impressive on their way to the championship game with wins over Indiana, Michigan State and Purdue. Ohio State needed a 37 foot buzzer beater by Evan Turner to get by Michigan in the quarter finals and double overtime to beat Illinois in the semi-finals. I think Minnesota plays hard today and keeps this game close. I’m not sure if they’ll have enough to get them over the top. So I’m going with Ohio State to win this year’s Big Ten Tournament in a close one against Minnesota, in the end just too much Evan Turner.

Today is Selection Sunday!

Not too bad on my predictions for Day 1!

Check out my Day 1 preview here: Big Ten Tourney Day 1

The second day of action starts off with the #8 Michigan vs. #1 Ohio State. The two teams split the season series, each winning on their home court. Should setup for a great “rubber” match. What? Yea, I know…I forgot to mention the game Michigan won, Buckeye Player of The Year candidate Evan Turner didn’t play due to injury. Turner leads the Big Ten in scoring and rebounding per game. He’s also second in assists per game. So you can basically throw out the meeting in Ann Arbor when the Wolverines beat the Buckeyes. But, I don’t care. I watched the focus Michigan played with today…Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims looked like they were on a mission. Call me a homer again….but I’m picking my Wolverines to upset the Buckeyes in the early tip (noon EST).

Looking at the second match-up of the day of #4 Wisconsin vs. #5 Illinois I see a battle. These two teams just played over the weekend and Wisconsin ruined Senior day for Illinois. Wisconsin now has Jon Leuer back and looks like the team that upset Duke early in the season in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge. I think the Badgers are a legitimate threat to the 3 teams that tied for the regular season title (Ohio State, Purdue and Michigan State) to win this tournament. With that said, Bo Ryan has his guys ready to play and moves on the the semi-finals (hopefully against my Wolverines!)

The third game is a match-up of #2 Purdue and #7 Northwestern. The Wildcats at 20-12 still find themselves on the outside looking in when it comes to the NCAA tournament. I think a win over a Hummel-less Purdue gets them back into the discussion, but they probably need 2 more wins to get real consideration and even then it might not be enough. Regardless, Purdue is still a good team without Robbie Hummel. Should be a battle, but I like the Boilers to move on to the semi-finals.

The final game of the day is a match-up of #3 Michigan State and #6 Minnesota. The Spartans will be without starting guard Chris Allen due to suspension. I think this will effect the Spartans rotation more than people realize. Their is a reason Tom Izzo still brings Draymond Green off the bench even though he is clearly “starter” caliber. It’s about chemistry and getting the right players on the floor at the right time. Minnesota has the talent to beat the Spartans and nearly did that in the twin cities earlier this season. Luckily, the Spartan’s still have Kalin Lucus and he will find a way to will his team to victory.

That’s it for day 2…we’ll see if I do as well here. Tough games to pick! I’ll be back tomorrow with a preview of day 3.

4 Days until Selection Sunday!

The great thing about the Big Ten Tournament is that traditionally the number 1 seed doesn’t win the tournament. In fact the number 1 seed has only been crowned tournament champions 4 times in the 12 year tournament history. (My apologizes to this years #1 seed, Ohio State)

The first game of the tournament features #8 Michigan vs #9 Iowa. As you know (even though I’m embarrassed to admit it) I’m as huge Michigan fan. They have been a huge disappointment this season. I would not be shocked to see Iowa win this game. The Hawkeyes are young team that has improved just about every game this year. But…call me a homer, I think DeShawn Sims does enough to extend his career another game.

The second game is a match-up of #7 Northwestern and #10 Indiana. The Hoosiers are in transition. They will be a much improved team next year. I see Northwestern winning this one rather easily.

The third and final game of the first day features #6 Minnesota vs #11 Penn State. After starting 0-12 in the conference, Penn State finished 3-3 in their last 6 games. Two of those losses were at Michigan State (by 2 points) and against Purdue (by 4 points). Don’t be shocked if Penn State wins this one. But I have to go with Tubby Smith and his team in this game…Minnesota in a close one.

I’ll be back to preview day 2 tomorrow! Leave me a comment and let me know if you agree or disagree with my picks!

I can’t say that I completely failed on my New Year’s Resolution. I’ve watch many of the 73 teams I planned to watch. Being in Big Ten country, I watched several Big Ten team’s more than once. So from the aspect of wanting to watch as many NCAA basketball teams as possible by Selection Sunday, I feel I succeeded. The part where I failed is updating this blog as I watched the games. I can make lots of excuses, but bottom line I didn’t get it done. That’s gonna change starting now…it’s March and everyone team feels like they have a fresh start….and so do I!

I’ll probably do a combination of written blog posts along with video blog posts. Please leave a comment below to let me know which you like better. I can’t watch every tournament game, but I plan to watch as many as possible….and blog about it! I’ll have a Big Ten tournament preview post for you soon. I’m also planning on publishing my bracket this year so everyone can see how GREAT I am at picking games…OR how busted up my bracket is after the opening weekend.

5 days until Selection Sunday!

Here is my game recap of the Michgan/Michigan State game…Spartans won this one in a thriller 57-56.

The Spartans remained undefeated in Big Ten play with a road win 65-64 at Minnesota after trailing by as many as 13 points in the second half.