This is the match-up in the final four that didn’t surprise a lot of people. Yeah, many people thought Kentucky would be here, but they weren’t shocked that West Virginia eliminated them in the regional final. Let’s take a look at both teams road to this point:

West Virginia:
1st Round:WVU 77 Morgan St. 50
2nd Round: WVU 68 Missouri 59
Sweet Sixteen: WVU 69 Washington 56
Elite Eight: WVU 73 Kentucky 66

Duke:
1st Round: Duke 73 Ark-Pine Bluff 44
2nd Round: Duke 68 California 53
Sweet Sixteen: Duke 70 Purdue 57
Elite Eight: Duke 78 Baylor 71

Here’s a look at the stats for this match-up: The Four Factors to Winning

I’m not sure it can get much more even statistically. There are virtually no advantages here. One stat that isn’t shown here is points per game. Duke is slightly better at 77.4 per game to West Virginia’s 72.8. But some could argue that Duke played in a weaker conference causing their average to be higher. Regardless, if you are looking for an eye-popping statistical advantage in this game, you won’t find it.

Looking at other factors like defensive schemes, I see two teams that play solid defense. Duke will play an aggressive man-to-man defense while West Virginia will play a mix of man and zone defenses. I think one of the keys will be turnovers. Neither team turns the ball over a lot, but trends tend to change under the bright lights at the final four. If one team slips in this area it could be the difference between hanging around for Monday night’s championship game and watching it on TV.

Final Prediction:

With this game so evenly matched, it comes down to the intangibles. Who wants it more? This game will also decide my household bracket challenge. My wife currently holds a slim lead on me and she has Duke in the championship game. I have West Virginia in the championship game. I’ll be routing for West Virginia from that aspect, but I’m a long time Duke fan and I have a difficult time routing against Duke and Coach K. I think West Virginia will have a difficult time with Duke’s pressure defense in the absence point guard Darryl Bryant. The Mountaineers looked very shaky at times when Kentucky turned up the defensive pressure. I’m picking Duke to beat West Virginia in an absolute battle between two great teams.

Remember when everyone said the Pac 10 was a joke of a conference and they should only be a one bid conference for the NCAA Tournament? (I’m guilty here) Well, the Pac 10 did only get two teams in the dance, but (11 seed) Washington “upset” (6 seed) Marquette and (3 seed) New Mexico on their way to the sweet sixteen. Also, Cal beat a good Louisville team in a 8 vs. 9 seed match-up. Louisville was picked by most to not only beat Cal, but give #1 seed Duke a scare if not beat them.

Enough of that, lets take a look inside the numbers for West Virginia vs Washington:

Just looking at the numbers, this should be a very close, competitive game. The only real advantage that sticks out is in favor of West Virginia on the offensive glass. Both teams limit their turnovers and shoot a high percentage from the field. Washington holds a slight advantage in terms of getting to the free throw line more frequently.

To me this game comes down to West Virginia’s big three of Da’Sean Butler, Kevin Jones and Devin Ebanks vs. Washington’s duo of Quincy Pondexter and Isaiah Thomas. Washington has been impressive to this point, but I think they’ll have problems tonight containing the big three of West Virginia. I see Bob Huggins and the Mountaineers moving on to the elite eight…and one step closer to the Final Four.

The sweet sixteen tips off with Butler vs. Syracuse. The spread on this game has the Orange at 6 point favorites. Don’t sleep on Butler as the underdog in this one; even though they are a 5 seed, they are also ranked #11 in the country. The 5 seed is only because of the conference they play in, but make no mistake they have the talent to play with the big boys. The Bulldogs also carry the nation’s longest active winning streak, which currently sits at 22 games.

Take a look at this game, Inside The Numbers:

The thing that jumps out to me is that both teams take care of the ball and really limit their turnovers. If that holds true in this match-up we should be in for a close, competitive game. The biggest differential is in free throw rate. Butler gets to the line more than Syracuse. We’ll see if that holds water in this game as Butler will see a Syracuse 2-3 zone unlike anything they faced before.

Taking a step back when looking at this match-up I see a tremendous perimeter shooting team in Butler, facing a team in Syracuse that plays zone defense. Conventional wisdom would tell you that the perimeter shooting team holds the advantage. The problem with that thought process is it doesn’t give the Syracuse 2-3 zone enough credit. The Orange can give a lot of different looks and pressure from the base 2-3 zone look. Butler will make some threes in this game, but in my opinion they’ll need to make 11 or 12 threes to win this game. Should be a fun one to watch.

Michigan has struggled living up to the expectations so far this season, losing pretty much all meaningful non-conference games so far.  I’m sure the Wolverines had this one circled on their schedule as a “must win”.  It was their last chance at a quality out of conference win.  The Wolverines delivered and outplayed U-Conn nearly the entire way winning 68-63.  Michigan was able to get U-Conn to play the Wolverines style of play, a half court slowed down pace.

This was my first opportunity to watch U-Conn play and I have to say I was really impressed with their star guard Jerome Dyson.  Although Dyson only scored 13 points as he played limited minutes due to foul trouble, he still impacted the game.  He might be the fastest player with the basketball in the open court that I’ve seen this year.  U-Conn is a completely different team when he’s out of the game.  The Huskies should still finish in the top part of the Big East despite this non-conference setback.  They really need to improve their perimeter shooting and free throw shooting to make a serious run in the NCAA tournament.

This is my second time blogging about Michigan this season.  Going into this game I figured DeShawn Sims needed to score a bunch in the paint for Michigan to be successful.  I was wrong, as a variety of role players stepped up for Michigan and hit a number of three point shots.  Manny Harris and Sims both took charge the last 5 minutes of the game, but this win was a total team effort.  I was impressed with their team defense holding U-Conn to only 63 points and forcing the Huskies to play more of a Big Ten style of play.  At a record of 10-7 Michigan still has their work cut out for them to get an at large NCAA tourney birth.

49 Teams to go….58 days until Selection Sunday!

Why am I doing this?  Here’ the answer: NCAA Basketball New Year’s Resolution

It was Big East Basketball at its best.  Ok, maybe not it’s best considering there was a total of 66 fouls and 94 free throws shot.  The game basically when 30 minutes past its scheduled block of time on TV.  It might have been sloppy at times but it was definitely entertaining.  In front of a “white out” crowd at Freedom Hall in Louisville, Rick Pitino sporting a white suit, Jay Wright’s Villanova Wildcats had the “Big East Road Mentality” that he had been preaching.  Lead by senior guard Scottie Reynolds the Cats rallied from a 17 point first half deficit to an impressive 92-84 Big East road win.

If you haven’t watched Louisville before, don’t blink…they like to play fast.  Rick Pitino is known for his up-tempo coaching style and this Louisville team fits the mold.  They run and they like to shoot the three.  (34 attempted tonight)  What they need to do more of score in the paint.  Louisville big man Samardo Samuels had 21 points tonight, but he could have had 41 if Louisville would have looked inside more.   I’m sure it’s something coach Pitino will tell his guards, assuming he wasn’t already.  Louisville plays a full court 1-2-2 press that forces their opponent to play faster than they are comfortable with.  The Cardinals fall back into a 2-3 zone that can really be described as a match-up zone at times.  I expect Louisville to be a NCAA tournament team and could win a game or two depending on the match-up.

Villanova is tough.  I don’t know a better way to describe this team.  You can’t count them out of any contest.  Scottie Reynolds who had 36 points, put his team on his back and made big shot after big shot.  Villanova plays mostly man-to-man defense, clamped down in the second half and forced some turnovers that led to easy baskets.  Villanova went to the Final Four last year, they lost some key players, but I think they have the talent to make another run.  Jay Wright has really done a great job of using his young players off the bench.  Villanova might be a deeper team this year despite being a bit younger.  A long way to go but Villanova has a chance to compete for a #1.

58 teams to go….64 days until Selection Sunday!

I love watching Big East conference games.  They are always very competitive and most of the time feature lots of great basketball talent.  Anyone who follows college basketball at all knows that Pitt gave Syracuse its first loss of the season in Orange country over the weekend.  It was a shock to most, but not to Jamie Dixon or his players.  Jay Bilas said it best on the broadcast tonight, “Pitt isn’t a team, they are a program. “  Meaning they lost 3 great players from last years team but just reload and continue to get great results.

Cincinnati played  a good game but just didn’t make good decisions and value every possession in the second half.  I was very impressed with Cincinnati freshman phenom Lance Stephenson as he led the Bearcats with 13 points in the first half.  However, he forced the issue on too many possessions in the second half and Cincy didn’t get quality shots.  He finished with 15 points after a rough second half.  I think Yancy Gates played tough but didn’t get enough touches in the second half which goes along with the poor decision making.  Overall, Cincinnati is a talented team that will continue to improve as the season goes on.  Their tournament life will most likely come down to a strong showing in the Big East Tournament.

Pittsburgh played a very physical “Pitt” style game.  If you don’t know what I mean by “Pitt” style then you need to watch them play.  You will rarely see a Pitt team get pushed around or out hustled.  They play good hard nosed defense and share the ball very well on offense.  Great combination for winning games right?  Great defense and unselfish offense.  I don’t know if they have the talent to win the Big East regular season, but don’t count them out of any game.  In my opinion they will be a NCAA tournament team and a tough out.

62 teams to go….71 days until Selection Sunday!

The West Virginia Mountaineers remained undefeated with a 90-84 overtime Big East road win over Seton Hall.  This will be my review of both West Virginia and Seton Hall.  Overall, I was impressed with both teams.  West Virginia came into the game undefeated and Seton Hall only with 1 loss.  However, I must admit I seriously questioned the competition Seton Hall played up to this game.

Seton Hall changed my impression of this team with about 5 minutes remaining in the first half.  They picked up the intensity on the defensive end forced some turnovers and bad shots by West Virginia and really pushed the tempo of the game.  Seton Hall seemed very comfortable at this pace.  They loved to penetrate and kick for the open three.  West Virginia struggled to find the shooters in transition and saw their double digit lead shrink to just 2 points by halftime.  At this point in the season I’m comfortable making the statement that Seton Hall is a run-n-gun style team.  This isn’t meant to be a negative statement; just a statement that describes the style of basketball Seton Hall likes to play.  I don’t remember many offensive sets being executed by Seton Hall.  When they were forced into an half court set they just looked for guard Jeremy Hazell to create a play.  This was pretty effective seeing how Hazell went for 41 points.  The Pirates just didn’t seem comfortable executing in the half court.  I’m sure they will get better as the season goes on, but for now the way to have success against the Pirates is to slow down the game.  Easier said then done though as they full court press much of the game.

West Virgina should finish near the top of the Big East this season.  At this point I would put their “big 3″ up against any team’s in the nation.  The trio of Da’Sean Butler, Devin Ebanks and Kevin Jones combined for 62 of the Mountaineers 90 points.  They also accounted for 37 of the team’s 49 rebounds and 13 of the team’s 19 assists.  West Virginia plays a very unselfish style of basketball where you can’t focus your defense on just one or even two players.  At times they really lock down on defense in the half court but seemed to struggle in transition defense as Seton Hall exposed this a number of times.  The Mountaineers ability to execute in the half court on offense was really impressive.  They are so patient and take what the defense gives them.  Of the “big 3″ Da’Sean Butler gets the most media hype so I was drawn to him most of the game.  When I checked the box score after the game I didn’t even realize Devin Ebanks had gone for 22 points, 17 rebounds and 7 assists playing all 45 minutes of the game.  He quietly shredded the Pirates the entire game.  As West Virginia continues to get better they seem to have the talent to make a deep run in the NCAA tourney.  The Mountaineers ability to execute in the half court on the offensive end will work well for them as NCAA tourney games tend to be played at a slower pace.

Two more teams down.

70 teams to go….80 days until Selection Sunday!