This is the match-up in the final four that didn’t surprise a lot of people. Yeah, many people thought Kentucky would be here, but they weren’t shocked that West Virginia eliminated them in the regional final. Let’s take a look at both teams road to this point:

West Virginia:
1st Round:WVU 77 Morgan St. 50
2nd Round: WVU 68 Missouri 59
Sweet Sixteen: WVU 69 Washington 56
Elite Eight: WVU 73 Kentucky 66

Duke:
1st Round: Duke 73 Ark-Pine Bluff 44
2nd Round: Duke 68 California 53
Sweet Sixteen: Duke 70 Purdue 57
Elite Eight: Duke 78 Baylor 71

Here’s a look at the stats for this match-up: The Four Factors to Winning

I’m not sure it can get much more even statistically. There are virtually no advantages here. One stat that isn’t shown here is points per game. Duke is slightly better at 77.4 per game to West Virginia’s 72.8. But some could argue that Duke played in a weaker conference causing their average to be higher. Regardless, if you are looking for an eye-popping statistical advantage in this game, you won’t find it.

Looking at other factors like defensive schemes, I see two teams that play solid defense. Duke will play an aggressive man-to-man defense while West Virginia will play a mix of man and zone defenses. I think one of the keys will be turnovers. Neither team turns the ball over a lot, but trends tend to change under the bright lights at the final four. If one team slips in this area it could be the difference between hanging around for Monday night’s championship game and watching it on TV.

Final Prediction:

With this game so evenly matched, it comes down to the intangibles. Who wants it more? This game will also decide my household bracket challenge. My wife currently holds a slim lead on me and she has Duke in the championship game. I have West Virginia in the championship game. I’ll be routing for West Virginia from that aspect, but I’m a long time Duke fan and I have a difficult time routing against Duke and Coach K. I think West Virginia will have a difficult time with Duke’s pressure defense in the absence point guard Darryl Bryant. The Mountaineers looked very shaky at times when Kentucky turned up the defensive pressure. I’m picking Duke to beat West Virginia in an absolute battle between two great teams.

For those of you, who missed out on watching the Michigan State vs. Maryland game, don’t worry; it’s bound to be on ESPN Classic. If you would have told me before the game that the Spartan’s floor leader, Kalin Lucas was going to miss the second half due to an injury, I would have said Terps win running away. I would have been wrong. Again, people (myself included) underestimated Tom Izzo’s ability to get the very most out of his team in March. The Spartans were without starter Chris Allen (he only played 4 minutes) and starter Kalin Lucas, who went down with an injury to his lower leg with about 2 minutes to play in the first half. Take any other team in the country minus two of their starters against Maryland in the NCAA tournament. Who wins? I’m serious now, even take Kentucky for example. Take John Wall and any other starter out of the Cat’s lineup. Would you pick them to beat Greivis Vasquez and Maryland? I sure wouldn’t. Let that sink in for a second so you can truly appreciate what the Spartans accomplished on a Sunday afternoon in Spokane.

I’m not going to try to recap this instant classic as words really can’t do it justice. So I encourage you to Google it and watch the last 3 minutes or so. Really great stuff. I did say before the game that MSU’s turnovers and their ability to crash the offensive glass would be two stats to keep an eye on. Well, the Spartans turned the ball over 18 times which allowed Maryland to comeback from a 16 point second half deficit. Michigan State’s ability to dominate the paint and hit the offensive boards hurt Maryland for much of the game. However, in the end it really just came down to one shot. Korie Lucious, that shot will be remembered by Spartan fans (and Maryland fans) for a long time to come.

Up next for Michigan State is Northern Iowa out of the Missouri Valley Conference and fresh of the stunning upset of the #1 overall seed Kansas Jayhawks. I’ll be back later in the week with a preview of this game as well as other sweet sixteen match-ups.

Well my bracket is completely busted after day 3 of the tournament. I’ve lost 2 final four teams (Kansas and Villanova) and my champion (Kansas). My wife, whose knowledge of college basketball is comparable to my knowledge of wearing make-up (and no I don’t wear make-up!); hit 26 of 32 in the first round compared to my 21. She has Maryland winning it all, so today’s Michigan State game is pivotal in our house-hold bracket challenge. I have the Spartans winning today in my bracket but what the heck do I know.

I’m a numbers guy so here are some numbers on today’s match-up.

As you can see these teams are evenly matched. I’d like to point out two things on this chart. First, Maryland holds a decent edge in turnovers. If that holds true then MSU could be in trouble. Second, MSU holds a fairly large advantage in offensive rebounding. In my opinion if the Spartans can get after the offensive boards like they have all season, then they will have a great chance at winning.

Two great coaches in this one. Michigan State’s Tom Izzo and Maryland’s Gary Williams. Here are some more stats for you:

Stats from Statsheet.com

Notice the outstanding tournament records of both coaches. The only real edge is probably in final fours. Izzo has 5 final fours, with one of those coming last year. Several players returned from that team, but they are missing some key pieces (Suton, Walton, Grey). I think this one comes down to Michigan State’s ability to contain Greivis Vasquez. He is the reining ACC player of the year and does it all for Maryland. If MSU can slow down his penetration and not allow him too many open looks from the perimeter, Maryland could struggle. Problem is most teams can’t do those things to Vasquez.

Michigan State will need another big game from Kalin Lucas and key contributions from Draymond Green, Raymar Morgan and Durrell Summers in order to advance to the sweet sixteen for the 3rd straight year.

Can’t wait for this one, should be a great game to watch. Let’s hope my wife’s bracket gets busted up after this one and allow me to save face in our house-hold tournament challenge!

It was a tale of two halves at Cameron Indoor Stadium in Dukes 79-59 thrashing of Boston College.  The first half Boston College did anything they wanted on offense.  They attacked the paint and Duke presented little resistance.  However, as bad as Duke’s defense was in the first half, Boston college was probably as bad or worse.  Duke took a 3 point advantage into halftime.

Duke exploded on a 22-6 run to start the second half which all started on the defensive end.  Whatever Coach K said at halftime definitely worked.  Duke is led by their backcourt of Nolan Smith and Jon Scheyer who had 24 points and 12 points respectively.    Kyle Singler looked like he still lacked confidence in the first half but he came around as the game went on.  Singler finished with 15 points and 10 boards.  It would be huge for Duke if he can continue to produce as they play their way through the tough ACC.  Despite the early conference loss at Georgia Tech, I still see Duke as the front runner (along with North Carolina) to win the ACC.  It looks to be another opportunity for Coach K and Duke to grab a number one seed come March.  Long way to go, but they opportunity is there.

Boston College is a team that is probably better than their 10-7 record.  Injuries have cost them some losses this season and they haven’t really meshed yet.  Sophomore guard Reggie Jackson was the only Eagle in double figures scoring 20 points.  Much of that should be credited to the Blue Devils defense in the second half, but Boston College needs someone to step up.  You can score 59 points per game in the ACC and expect to win many games.  They are well coached and have the ability to surprise some teams in the ACC but with 7 losses already, they have their work cut out for them. Looks like a NIT type season at best for Boston College.

54 teams to go….62 days until Selection Sunday!