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We have finally arrived at the final four. Every college hoops fan loves the final four. Let’s not forget the road to the final four for Michigan State and Butler.
Butler:
1st Round- Butler 77 UTEP 59
2nd Round- Butler 54 Murray St. 52
Sweet Sixteen- Butler 63 Syracuse 59
Elite Eight- Butler 63 Kansas State 56
Michigan State:
1st Round- Michigan State 70 New Mexico State 67
2nd Round- Michigan State 85 Maryland 83
Sweet Sixteen- Michigan State 59 Northern Iowa 52
Elite Eight- Michigan State 70 Tennessee 69
Now lets take a look at the stats in this edition of “The Four Factors to Winning“:
The two stats that jump out to me are offensive rebounding and free throws. The Spartans hold a huge advantage in offensive rebounding in this match-up. The Spartans lead the nation in total rebounding differential at about +9 rebounds per game. The Bulldogs get to the free throw line at a higher rate than their opponents which does two things. It allows them to score points from the free throw line and also gets their opponents in foul trouble.
Taking a look outside the stats I see two teams that play a similar style. Both play hard nosed defense and are opportunistic on offense. What I mean by opportunistic is that both of them can play in the half court but they will look to run when a opportunity presents itself. Michigan State holds the advantage inside but can they find a way to exploit it? Syracuse and Kansas State couldn’t.
I see the key match-up of this game at the forward spot. Butler’s Gordon Hayward who will most likely be matched up against Michigan State’s Raymar Morgan. Hayward has been the “x-factor” for Butler in the tournament and nobody has been able to match-up with him. Morgan has the size and agility to match-up with Hayward, but will he be up to the challenge?
Final Prediction:
This will be a very close, competitive game. The home crowd for Butler will energize the Bulldogs as Butler’s campus is only 7 miles from Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. I try to stick to one rule in the tournament when picking Michigan State games. Unless their is a HUGE differential in talent between the two teams, I don’t pick against Tom Izzo in the tournament. I think Izzo and his Spartans find a way to win another close one and get back to the Championship game Monday night for a second consecutive year.
