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This is the match-up in the final four that didn’t surprise a lot of people. Yeah, many people thought Kentucky would be here, but they weren’t shocked that West Virginia eliminated them in the regional final. Let’s take a look at both teams road to this point:

West Virginia:
1st Round:WVU 77 Morgan St. 50
2nd Round: WVU 68 Missouri 59
Sweet Sixteen: WVU 69 Washington 56
Elite Eight: WVU 73 Kentucky 66

Duke:
1st Round: Duke 73 Ark-Pine Bluff 44
2nd Round: Duke 68 California 53
Sweet Sixteen: Duke 70 Purdue 57
Elite Eight: Duke 78 Baylor 71

Here’s a look at the stats for this match-up: The Four Factors to Winning

I’m not sure it can get much more even statistically. There are virtually no advantages here. One stat that isn’t shown here is points per game. Duke is slightly better at 77.4 per game to West Virginia’s 72.8. But some could argue that Duke played in a weaker conference causing their average to be higher. Regardless, if you are looking for an eye-popping statistical advantage in this game, you won’t find it.

Looking at other factors like defensive schemes, I see two teams that play solid defense. Duke will play an aggressive man-to-man defense while West Virginia will play a mix of man and zone defenses. I think one of the keys will be turnovers. Neither team turns the ball over a lot, but trends tend to change under the bright lights at the final four. If one team slips in this area it could be the difference between hanging around for Monday night’s championship game and watching it on TV.

Final Prediction:

With this game so evenly matched, it comes down to the intangibles. Who wants it more? This game will also decide my household bracket challenge. My wife currently holds a slim lead on me and she has Duke in the championship game. I have West Virginia in the championship game. I’ll be routing for West Virginia from that aspect, but I’m a long time Duke fan and I have a difficult time routing against Duke and Coach K. I think West Virginia will have a difficult time with Duke’s pressure defense in the absence point guard Darryl Bryant. The Mountaineers looked very shaky at times when Kentucky turned up the defensive pressure. I’m picking Duke to beat West Virginia in an absolute battle between two great teams.

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